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- Last Update: 14 August 2020, 9:38
Support / Resistance Lines
NOTE: Whether I%27ve updated this summary recently or not, the charts are maintained, pictures are worth a thousand words.
8/13/2020:Rotation back into tech continues, TSLA starting the next leg up.
Strategy based on these assumptions:
- Coming into this crisis, economy was stronger than it has been in quite some time, maybe decades?
- Government taking steps protect credit markets and financial system, we%27re not talking depression here, no reason the market will not revisit its recent highs within a year or so.
- Low oil prices (~$40 or lower) will be here for a while, reduces cost of business.
- Extremely low interest rates will fuel a ripping economy when things clear.
- Don%27t retirement money for years.
Strategy as consists of 4 parts:
1. Tech Heavyweights: Strong long-term uptrends coming into pandemic. ADBE, NOW, CRM, MSFT, AVGO, SWKS, TLSA, etc. Target 50% of portfolio.
2. Metals: Silver still oversold long-term by all tradition measures, the silver/gold price ratio per ounce (see chart) is at levels we haven%27t even come close to in the 50 years. A world back to work also needs copper. Watching for another Palladium pullback. Target 15% of portfolio.
3. Growth & stability at a value: Companies on strong long-term up-trends coming into this but have taken a big hit, generally rounds out the diversification of the portfolio. Idustrials (RTX, X, NUE, LIN), energy (CVX, COP, PSX), medical, consumer, etc. Ignoring defensive stocks that may do well while the pandemic goes on because I am looking for long-term return. Target 20%
4. Coronavirus Epicenter stocks: Airlines, casinos, restaurants, etc.. Target: 15%
5. Cash: 0%
6/4/2020: One consideration I was pondering back in March, and maybe it%27s bearing out in the price action was that it%27s possible the mines kept running straight through the pandemic, while the auto plants were shut down for so long, resulting in an inventory build. If this is the case, it%27s still just a timing issue and a relatively short term one. Palladium prices were shooting up very strong prior to the pandemic based on huge demand. If the miners kept investing in operating costs to keep mining while they had no customer demand, then it%27s because they knew they can work off this inventory once the plants get up and running without depressing prices too badly. At some point, in anticipation of the bins starting to get lighter, PALL will move very quickly up to the mid 200s. Early in this pandemic I already took a $150 to $222 ride in a hurry, before any inventory build, so I%27ve seen it move very quickly.
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